[2023-02-04] 华尔街日报 - 社论：中国在蒙大拿州上空试飞气球

 

Somehow a weather balloon ended up near U.S. missile bases. Sure.
肯定的啦，一个气象气球稀里糊涂的竟落在了美国导弹基地附近。

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday postponed his visit to Beijing scheduled for next week after a suspicious Chinese balloon was spotted over Montana. Good decision. But the public deserves to know more about this episode, and one uncomfortable lesson is that the U.S. homeland is increasingly vulnerable.
在蒙大拿州上空发现可疑的中国气球后，国务卿安东尼·布林肯周五推迟了原定于下周对北京的访问。 这个决定好啊。 但公众应该更多地了解这一事件，一个令人担忧的教训是美国本土越来越脆弱。

The Pentagon said Thursday night it had “detected and is tracking a high-altitude surveillance balloon” over the U.S. F-22 fighter jets and other assets were sent to examine the balloon, and one question is why the U.S. didn’t shoot it out of the sky. The Pentagon admits it’s been lurking in sovereign U.S. air space for “a couple of days,” notably near bases for U.S. nuclear missiles.
五角大楼周四晚上表示，它已经在美国上空“发现并正在跟踪一个高空监视气球”。派出 F-22 战斗机和其他部队检查气球，可问题是为什么美国没有将其击落。 五角大楼承认它已经潜伏在美国主权领空“几天”，尤其是在美国核导弹基地附近。

The military brass advised against shooting down the balloon, though the stated reason—risk of debris—seems manageable. No one doubts China would have shot down an American asset wandering over its bases. The Pentagon won’t say whether it may take out the balloon once it’s over water.
军方高层建议不要击落气球，尽管声明的原因——碎片的风险——似乎是可以控制的。 没有人怀疑中国会击落在其基地上游荡的美国资产。 五角大楼不会说它是否可以在气球浮出水面后将其取出。

Beijing’s official explanation is that this is merely a hapless “civilian airship” that made a wrong turn and . . . ended up near U.S. intercontinental ballistic missile bases. “China regrets that the airship strayed into the United States,” the foreign ministry said.
北京方面的官方解释是，这不过是一艘倒霉的“民用飞艇”，转错了方向。 . . 最终落在美国洲际弹道导弹基地附近。 “中国对飞艇误入美国表示遗憾，”外交部表示。

So the balloon heads over the Aleutians, strays over Canada, but China acknowledges the balloon only after the U.S. announces it has been discovered over Montana? This isn’t believable, and the patent dishonesty will add to the U.S. public’s growing mistrust of China.
所以气球飞到阿留申群岛上空，飘到加拿大上空，但在美国宣布在蒙大拿州上空发现气球后，中国才承认气球？ 这是不可信的，中国向来的不诚实只会增加美国公众对中国的不信任。

What other Chinese surveillance exercises haven’t we been told about? The Pentagon says there have been other “instances of this activity,” over the past several years, including in previous Administrations, but that this balloon loitered longer. China also uses satellites to spy on the U.S., and the Pentagon insists the balloon poses little intelligence risk. But the U.S. government took unspecified steps to shield sensitive assets, and Sen. Tom Cotton notes the balloon may be “an intelligence bonanza.”
还有哪些中国的监视演习我们还不知道呢？ 五角大楼表示，在过去几年中，包括在以前的政府中，还有其他“这种活动的例子”，只是这个气球徘徊的时间更长。 中国还使用卫星监视美国，五角大楼坚称气球不会带来情报风险。 但美国政府采取了未具体说明的措施来保护敏感资产，参议员汤姆·科顿 (Tom Cotton) 指出气球可能是“情报大淘金”。

Beijing may also be testing what it can get away with, as it often does. Someone thought the intrusion was worth the effort and risk of discovery. Did war hawks in Beijing want to blow up Mr. Blinken’s visit? It’s also possible the balloon has some surveillance or probing benefit that hasn’t been disclosed.
北京也可能像往常一样测试它能否逃避惩罚。 有人认为入侵的努力和被发现的风险是值得的。 北京的鹰派是想破坏布林肯先生的访问吗？ 气球也有可能具有一些尚未披露的监视或探测功能。

The trial balloon ought to pop U.S. illusions that China’s behavior is irrelevant to Americans at home, or that Beijing is merely contesting farflung Pacific islands in a supposed sphere of influence. Beijing’s ambitions are global, and the U.S. homeland is vulnerable.
试验气球应该会打破美国的幻想，即中国的行为与国内的美国人无关，或者北京只是在假定的势力范围内争夺遥远的太平洋岛屿。 北京的野心是全球性的，而美国本土是脆弱的。

Any conflict with China could feature cyber attacks on the U.S. electric grid, electromagnetic attacks, hypersonic vehicles, and soon perhaps weapons run by artificial intelligence. Vladimir Putin mentioned this vulnerability this week, rattling that “a modern war with Russia will be very different” for the West than the tank and artillery fight in Ukraine. Most Americans aren’t aware of these dangers, and our political leaders aren’t telling them.
与中国的任何冲突都可能导致对美国电网的网络攻击、电磁攻击、高超音速飞行器甚至很快就可能由人工智能操作的武器完成的攻击。 弗拉基米尔·普京 (Vladimir Putin) 本周提到了这一漏洞，并称对西方而言，“与俄罗斯的现代战争将非常不同”，不再是像和乌克兰一样靠坦克和大炮了。 大多数美国人并没有意识到这些危险，我们的政治领导人也没有告诉他们。

The U.S. doesn’t want war with China, and it would be best for the countries to develop a modus vivendi to avoid it. But that won’t happen if China behaves with impunity. Lying about claims in the South China Sea; trashing its treaty with Hong Kong; cyber theft; unsafe aerial intercepts of foreign planes; using trade to bully countries over Taiwan—all of this is contributing to bipartisan suspicion against China in the U.S. The balloon will surely be fodder for the House’s new bipartisan select committee on competition with China.
美国不想与中国开战，最好让这些国家制定一种权宜之计来避免战争。 但如果中国逍遥法外，这种情况就不会发生。 在南海主权问题上撒谎； 破坏与香港的条约； 网络盗窃； 针对外国飞机的不安全空中拦截； 利用贸易在台湾问题上欺负其他国家——所有这些都助长了美国两党对中国的猜疑。气球肯定会成为众议院新的两党对华竞争特别委员会的素材。

Postponing Mr. Blinken’s trip was important but easy. Now the Biden Administration will have to demonstrate to Chinese President Xi Jinping that he can’t violate U.S. sovereign territory without consequences.
推迟布林肯先生的行程很重要，但也很容易。 现在，拜登政府将不得不向中国国家主席习近平证明，他不能在没有后果的情况下侵犯美国主权领土。

标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。

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