[2023-01-03] 华尔街日报 - 中国各行各业努力适应动态清零结束后的生活
![]() Following the government’s abrupt policy reversal, cases are rising among workers, customers and suppliers ahead of the Lunar New Year
随着中国防疫限制政策大转弯，春节前，疫情在工人、消费者和供应商人员中间蔓延。
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After three years of “zero-Covid” economic disruption, many Chinese businesses awoke to a happy new reality in December: No more restrictions.
在经历了三年来由动态清零抗疫政策造成的经济干扰后，许多中国企业12月迎来令人欣喜的新现实：不再有防疫限制。
But before they can take advantage, business owners in the world’s second-largest economy say, they have to get their supply chains in order after a topsy-turvy time capped by this abrupt reversal—and withstand a wave of Covid-19 cases sweeping through employee ranks.
但在利用这一大好时机之前，这个全球第二大经济体的一些企业主说，他们必须先等待这一政策急转弯引发混乱后供应链恢复有序运转，并抵御住席卷员工的武汉肺炎感染浪潮的冲击。
“Everyone fell ill almost at the same time,” said Hong Binbin, manager of toy maker Shenzhen Jiaoyang Industrial Co., describing an early December Covid surge that took out 90% of his staff in two weeks. The labor shortage forced him to delay a shipment of custom toys to a South Korean client to a January delivery date from the original Dec. 25.
玩具制造商深圳骄阳实业有限公司(Shenzhen Jiaoyang Industrial Co.)管理人洪彬彬表示，大家几乎都在同一时间得病。据他描述，12月初的一波武汉肺炎病例激增在两周内导致他手下90%的员工无法工作。由于劳动力短缺，他不得不将面向一位韩国客户的一批定制玩具交货日期从原定的12月25日推迟到1月。
Mr. Hong, who himself caught the virus at the end of December, said he felt helpless and frustrated at the lack of warning and follow-up guidance around the dismantling of the stringent Covid restrictions. Now, he is concerned that clients, fearing a wave of reinfections in the southern metropolis of Shenzhen, may withhold orders.
洪彬彬自己也在12月底感染了武汉肺炎。他表示，让他感到无助和沮丧的是，政府对于解除严格的防疫限制措施没有相关警告和后续指导。他现在担心，客户出于对南方大都市深圳可能出现一波再感染潮的担忧，也许会暂缓下订单。
Since China’s last major restrictions were scrapped on Dec. 7, the pandemic has spread quickly across the country. Businesses describe being unprepared for the sudden end to widespread testing, mass quarantines and city lockdowns, and the labor shortages that followed as workers fell sick.
自12月7日中国取消最后的主要限制措施以来，武汉肺炎疫情在全国迅速蔓延。企业表示，对广泛核酸检测、大规模隔离和城市封控突然结束，以及工人生病导致的劳动力短缺毫无准备。
Manufacturing and service-sector activity fell in December to their lowest levels since February 2020, when the virus first spread across the country, the government reported Saturday. Economists say these struggles could ripple out across supply chains and affect the global economy.
中国政府上周六公布，12月制造业和服务业活动降至2020年2月以来的最低水平。2020年2月武汉肺炎疫情首次在中国爆发。经济学家表示，这些问题可能会在整个供应链扩散，并影响全球经济。
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“The world is connected through China-centric supply chains,” said Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University and former Asia chairman at Morgan Stanley. “Any ‘kink’ in those chains spells trouble for global production and the world economy.”
耶鲁大学(Yale University)高级研究员、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)前亚洲区主席史蒂芬‧罗奇(Stephen Roach)称，世界是通过以中国为中心的供应链连接起来的，这些链条上的任何“不顺畅”都会给全球生产和世界经济带来麻烦。
But the prospect of a large number of cases in January—a time of year when business activity is disrupted anyway, by the Lunar New Year holiday—has many in the manufacturing and service sectors optimistic that normalcy could come as soon as the beginning of February.
但1月份可能会出现大量病例的前景，让制造业和服务业的许多人乐观地认为，可能最快2月初就会恢复正常。每年1月份中国的商业活动都会因春节假期而受到干扰。
“It sounds strange, I think it’s rather helpful than harmful,” said Andreas Nagel, Shanghai-based chief commercial officer at Stulz, a maker of climate-control equipment that was hit in December by a wave of Covid absenteeism. “We have a real chance of getting back to normal after Chinese New Year.”
世图兹(Stulz)驻上海的首席商务官Andreas Nagel说：“听起来很奇怪，我认为这是有利的，而不是有害的。”世图兹是温湿度管理设备制造商，在12月曾受到一波武汉肺炎疫情相关人员短缺的冲击。 Nagel表示：“我们真的有可能在春节后恢复正常。”
Restrictions are coming down as overseas demand for Chinese-made goods stagnates, with November exports down from a year earlier at the steepest pace in more than two years. Philip Richardson, owner of Trueanalog Strictly OEM, a manufacturer of audio equipment in Panyu, just outside the southern manufacturing hub of Guangzhou, said his company faces a double whammy: Covid-induced disruptions and a painful downturn in the business cycle, both radiating through the supply chain.
抗疫限制措施的取消正值海外对中国制造商品的需求停滞之际，去年11月中国出口同比下降速度为两年多来最快。番禺的音频设备制造商Trueanalog Strictly OEM的老板Philip Richardson表示，他的公司面临双重打击，分别是疫情带来的干扰和商业周期的痛苦下滑期，两者都通过供应链传导。
Overseas customers are generally overstocked after bottlenecks in China’s supply chain finally opened up earlier in 2022, said Mr. Richardson, who has been in China for more than two decades.
已在中国20多年的Richardson称，中国的供应链瓶颈在2022年早些时候终于打通后，海外客户普遍库存过剩。
In the absence of mass testing, it is hard to track the virus’s advance. But conversations with business owners scattered across the country suggest it spread quickly across northern China early in December before moving to Shanghai and southern China. Hospitals filled up with mostly elderly patients, while working-age people were mostly able to bounce back after a week or so.
在不进行大规模核酸检测的情况下，很难了解疫情的发展。但与中国各地企业主的交谈表明，武汉肺炎12月初在中国北部迅速蔓延，然后扩散到上海和中国南部。医院挤满病人，其中大部分为老年患者，而适龄工作人员大多能在感染一周左右后好转。
In the central city of Zhengzhou, employees at Apple Inc.’s largest iPhone contract manufacturer, Foxconn Technology Group, have described a relatively rapid spread of the virus through the workforce, though analysts and people involved in the supply chain believe that production is beginning to catch up to demand for the costlier Pro models.
在中部城市郑州，苹果公司(Apple Inc., AAPL) iPhone产品最大合同制造商富士康科技集团(Foxconn Technology Group)的雇员描述了武汉肺炎在员工中相对快速传播的情况，不过分析师和供应链相关人士认为，价格更高的Pro机型产量正开始赶上需求。
Many plants, hit by waves of infections, have simply brought forward planned Lunar New Year production halts.
许多工厂受到一波又一波的感染，使得计划中的春节停产提前。
Xie Haifeng, a 38-year-old forklift operator in Shanghai who reports that half of his team is sick with the virus, said he would return to his hometown in nearby Jiangsu province earlier than usual to celebrate the holiday. His employer, Yanfeng Global Automotive Interiors Co., which supplies parts for Tesla Inc. and other auto makers, plans to allow workers to leave five days before the weeklong holiday formally begins on Jan. 21.
上海38岁的叉车操作员Xie Haifeng表示，他的团队中有一半人因感染武汉肺炎正在病假，并称，他将比以往更早的回临近上海的江苏省家乡过春节。他的雇主延锋(Yanfeng Global Automotive Interiors Co.)为特斯拉(Tesla Inc., TSLA)等汽车制造商提供零部件，该公司计划允许工人较1月21日正式开始的一周春节假期提前五天开始放假。
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The labor crunch is hitting the service sector as well. Shanghai Disneyland said its theme park, with its workforce reduced, has shut or scaled back some live shows, attractions and restaurants. The theme park didn’t respond to a request for comment.
劳动力紧缺也在冲击服务行业。上海迪士尼公园(Shanghai Disneyland)表示，由于人员配置降低，其主题公园的一些现场表演、景点和餐厅临时暂停开放或以降低承载量的方式开放或呈现。该主题公园未回应置评请求。
Covid is also keeping customers away from some businesses.
武汉肺炎疫情也令一些企业遭遇顾客流失。
Xu Hengqiang, who sells rice noodle rolls in Shenzhen’s populous Bao’an district, said orders in the last week of December were a fraction of the usual as cases in the city continued to rise. Delivery orders and walk-in customers totaled about 90 on Wednesday and again on Thursday, he said, compared with about 500 on a typical day.
在深圳人口众多的宝安区销售肠粉的Xu Hengqiang称，12月最后一周的订单很少，远不及平时，因为该市的新增病例持续上升。他说，周三外卖订单和堂食单量一共只有90单左右，周四也是如此，而之前每天通常有500左右的单量。
Most of his dine-in patrons have already caught the virus, he said, while online orders have dried up as customers worry the virus will inadvertently be delivered to their door—a common concern in China, where authorities have urged disinfection of frozen foods and other goods.
他表示，多数堂食顾客已经感染了武汉肺炎，网上订单已寥寥无几，因为顾客担心点外卖也会感染病毒。在中国，这种担忧很普遍，中国有关部门已敦促对冷冻食品等商品进行消毒。
China’s usually efficient logistics networks also were temporarily paralyzed by the wave of Covid infections, prompting e-commerce giant JD.com Inc. to dispatch 1,000 workers to Beijing to clear a backlog of deliveries and Shanghai authorities to offer daily incentives of about $8.60 to entice delivery drivers to turn up for work.
中国通常高效的物流网络也因这波武汉肺炎疫情而暂时瘫痪，促使电商巨头京东集团股份有限公司(JD.com, Inc., 9618.HK)向北京调派1,000名快递员以清理积压货物，上海主管部门则提供每天约合8.6美元的奖励，以吸引快递员和外卖小哥上班。
Mei Zhang, a 30-year-old cafe owner in Shenzhen, said delivering food and roasted coffee beans to her clients had become unusually challenging since restrictions were lifted. “Delivery men are mostly Covid-positive now,” said Ms. Zhang, who has been working around the clock after her entire staff contracted Covid following the policy change.
深圳一家咖啡店现年30岁的老板Mei Zhang说，自从取消限制措施后，向顾客快递食品和烘焙咖啡豆变得极具挑战性。Zhang说，现在快递员基本都阳了。政策变化后，她的员工全部感染了武汉肺炎，她一直在连轴转地工作。
In the final three months of 2022, Chinese businesses borrowed more from nonbank lenders than at any time since China Beige Book, a research firm, first began tracking the figures in 2012—a potential sign they are struggling.
2022年的最后三个月，中国企业从非银行贷款机构的借款比2012年研究公司中国黄皮书(China Beige Book)首次开始追踪该数据以来的任何时候都要多，这一迹象可能表明企业面临困难。
“When companies tap credit there is always the question of whether it is being done out of optimism or distress,” China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller said. “Here, the evidence for distress is overwhelming.”
中国黄皮书首席执行官Leland Miller说，公司举借信贷时，总会引发这样的疑问：这是因为乐观还是因为压力？目前而言，压力的证据是压倒性的。标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。问：“为何昨日帖子官配爱国红狼如死妈般嚎丧？”
答：“帖子标题太刺激了！现在都开始质疑过去三年封过城么，早晚忘记武汉肺炎始发武汉也是很正常滴！”![]() ![]() ![]() ![]()
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